Colorado-Colorado State Odds and Prediction
August 30, 2008
Sunday in-state rivals collide with the Colorado State Rams hosting the Colorado Buffaloes. The Buffs own the all-time series record by a 58-19 record, including four of the last five meetings, but in recent years these games have been closer and closer. CSU won a disappointing 3 games last year, while Colorado mustered six wins and a trip to the Independence Bowl where they would eventually lose to Alabama 24-30. Colorado head coach, Dan Hawkins, is optimistic about the season and he has good reason to be with the success he enjoyed last year. Colorado State should be happy with any improvement they are able to make. The master lines-makers over at ThePig.com have the point spread for this bitter rivalry set at Colorado -11.
Hawkins managed just two wins in his first year as Colorado’s head coach in 2006, but improved to six wins last year and a bowl bid. The big question for the Buffaloes will be if they can continue to improve. That could be difficult for Colorado, who will be starting a lot of young players on offense. There is a solid core of offensive starters returning with 6, but at key skill positions like wide receiver and running back, Colorado is admittedly inexperienced. If there’s one thing that could be learned from the 2007 season from the Buffaloes offense it is that Hawkin’s offensive game plan can be effective if executed correctly. Last season one of the keys to COlorado’s success was avoiding turning the ball over, which will again be a major factor in how they end up in 2008. This team is probably a year or two away from making any real noise in the Big 12. They have a brutal conference schedule to start their season, so their opening two, non-conference games are going to be crucial to this team’s confidence.
Defensively, Colorado needs to make vast improvements. Last season saw a Buffaloes team that gave up more than 29 points per game and nearly 390 years of total offense per game, both numbers higher than what their offense was able to put out. On paper, 2008 does not look like it will be any improvement on 2007′s numbers with some of their best, veteran players gone for various reasons. Their secondary has some depth and talent, so it should be a source of stregth for the D. Overall 8 of the 11 starters are back from last year. They are still a young team, but hopefully they can take some of their early experience and turn the defense into a strength for this team rather than it’s biggest weekness.
Colorado State brings back 7 offensive starters for the 2008 season. They will be trying to improve on what was an average offensive season, at best, in 2007. The Rams managed 25 points per game on 380 yard of total offense, which would be considered pretty good in most conferences, but in the offense-heavy Mountain West Conference, those offensive numbers were not enough to keep this team comeptitive.
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A big source of weakness for the Rams last season was the defense. This is a squad that gave up over 414 yards of total offense and 30 points per game last season. It’s quite obvious that if these numbers don’t improve dramatically, Colorado State is not going to be competitive yet again this year. Only 5 starters from last year’s defense return, which doesn’t have to be a bad thing, especially after what last year’s team was able to accomplish, but 6 new starters will need to gel with the rest of the team quickly for 2008 to be any better than 2007.
Make no mistake, neither of these teams will be mistaken for a BCS contender. Honestly, neither will probably be any threat in their respective conferences. Colorado is the better team on paper here, but not by a huge margin. Rivalry games seem to bring out the best in players. We are recommending the Colorado State Rams +11 to defend their home turf and win or keep this game very close.
Prediction: Colorado State 31, Colorado 28
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