Cowboys @ Browns Odds, NFL Picks, and Predictions
September 5, 2008
The Cowboys and Browns have their hopes set high for the 2008 NFL season. The Browns were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL last season as they won 10 of their 16 games and just barely missed out on the playoffs. All of this happening for Cleveland after winning a total of just 10 games in the previous two years combined. The Dallas Cowboys were expected to be one of the top teams in the league last year, and they delivered in the regular season with a 13-3 record. Dallas was ousted from the playoffs by the eventual Super Bowl Champion New York Giants, but the Cowboys return another solid team in 2008 and are looking to improve on the success they enjoyed throughout 2007.
The Dallas offense has grown into one of the most productive units in the NFL over the past few years. A big part of that success can be credited to Tony Romo, who put up incredible numbers last season. Romo can’t take all of the credit, however, because he has a great supporting cast. Terrell Owens was less of a distraction off the field last year and it lead to one of his better offensive seasons. Another of Romo’s favorite targets, tight end Jason Witten, was a powerful offensive weapon, putting up amazing numbers at his position with 96 receptions and over 1,100 yards. The ground game should be solid again with Marion Barber returning to the backfield. Barber is a hard-nosed runner that can pick up yards when the Cowboys need them, but is a back that can also break some impressive runs with his great ability to break tackles.
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On defense the Cowboys made some good additions to an already solid squad. Adam “Pac-Man” Jones was allowed to join the team, which adds some depth to a secondary lead by Pro-Bowlers Terence Newman and Anthony Harris at the corners. The defensive line and linebacker crews combine for one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, in fact, Dallas finished the season allowing just 94.6 yards per game on the ground, good for 6th best in the league. It’s hard to find holes to exploit in this defense, giving the Cowboys a great chance to be one of the dominant defensive teams in the NFL in 2008.
Cleveland could have been looking at Dallas when they built their team. They have a big play threat at wide receiver in Braylon Edwards, plus they have one of the most explosive tight ends in the league with Kellen Winslow. Derek Anderson is back as the Browns signal-caller and he is trying to build on a very impressive 2007 showing. Anderson threw 29 TDs last year on 3,787 yards passing. The Browns scored a great second or third option receiver in the off season by grabbing Dante Stallworth, so they are in position to be a productive offense in ‘08. The running game was a big part of the Brown’s offense last season with a healthy Jamal Lewis, who racked up over 1,300 yards, but Lewis has a nagging hamstring injury and they do not have much depth lined up behind him. If the running game can give enough openings to a very dangerous passing attack, the Browns can make another run at a playoff-caliber season. Their first challenge will be against a very good Dallas defense, but their performance Sunday should tell them a lot about how good they really are.
While the offense in Cleveland was certainly on the right track last year, the defense needed some changes, and that’s exactly what they got. The Browns bolstered their front 3 defensive linemen, which should improve the rush defense all around. There are still some major concerns in the secondary, particularly in a game against an offense that likes to pass as much as the Cowboys do. Trades and injuries have hurt a defensive backfield that was already the biggest problem on this Brown’s team. Hopefully the Browns can patch together a good enough secondary to keep them competitive because their offense can win them games if the defense gives them the support to do so.
BetUs has the Cowboys -5.5 on the road, but as a home underdog coming off of a very good season, the Browns +5.5 looks tempting. The Browns expectations are high after last year’s game play. This season could be a big step forward for the Browns, or a giant step back. Only time will tell, but a win over the Cowboys in Week 1 would be a tremendous accomplishment for this group. For the Cowboys, nothing less than a dominant win will do. If they want to establish themselves as the team to beat in the NFL, which they very well may be, it all has to start with convincing win over the Browns in Cleveland Sunday.
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Texans-Steelers Odds
September 4, 2008
The Steelers will be looking to get off to a quick start to the 2008 NFL season as they host the Houston Texans, a team looking to improve upon a surprising 8-8 season in 2007. The Steelers are in position to make another post season run, but don’t sleep on this much-improved Houston squad. Pro Internet sportsbook, ThePig.com, has Sunday’s line favoring the Steelers -6 at home.
Pittsburgh had a rough finish to their ‘07 campaign. After starting the year 9-3 they lost 3 of their last four in the regular season and were ousted by Jacksonville in the AFC wild-card game. Pittsburgh can put that all behind them with a quick win out of the gates. They’ll have Big Ben Roethlisberger back to lead the offense. Roethlisberger is coming off of his best statistical season, but, as was proved later in the season, having Ben pass more is not necessarily the best option for this team. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are likely to be Roethlisberger’s favorite targets down the field in 2008. The Steelers return Willie Parker to the backfield and also added Rashard Mendenhall through the NFL Draft to give Parker a breather, and, hopefully for Mendenhall, to eventually earn a starting spot.
The Steelers had an excellent defense last year. They ended up allowing only 266.4 yards of total offense per game, a big reason they were so successful early in the season. That number increased, along with the points they allowed per game toward the end of the season, which also marked the beginning of the Steelers’ struggles. It remains clear that for this team to be successful their defense has to lead the way.
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The Texans have to be pleased with their performance last year. For them to improve in 2008 QB Matt Schaub will need to stay healthy all season, and Houston will need to establish a presence in their running game. Schaub’s favorite target, Andre Johnson should be healthy this season, and that’s great news for Texan’s fans as he is an explosive key player for this offense. The running back position is up for grabs right now with Chris Brown out for the season, Ahman Green is banged up yet again, so Chris Taylor and rookie Steve Slaton will have a change to prove their mettle.
The Houston defense will be lead by the defensive line and Mario Williams, who after a disappointing 2006 rookie season improved dramatically in 2007, particularly on his pass-rush, and scored 14 sacks. The rest of the defense will need to improve for this team to make a jump to the playoffs in 2008.
There are still not a lot of people sold on the Texans. They were so bad for so long, who can blame them? But, you can’t overlook the fact that they earned 8 wins in the NFL last year, just two less than the Steelers. The Steelers have all of their key players in place and have even made some interesting additions that could prove useful in the right situations. On paper it looks like another playoff season for Pittsburgh, but that’s why they play the games. Before they can start thinking about the post season they’ll have to get past a hungry young Houston Texans team. If you’re not convinced that the Steelers can pull out their home opener, bet on the Texans +6.
Redskins-Giants Odds and Pick
September 2, 2008
Fresh off of one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, the New York Giants open their season, and the NFL season, by hosting the Washington Redskins. Expectations will be high in New York this season. The Giants will be out to prove that 2007 wasn’t a fluke and to do that they will need to start 2008 with a win against an NFC East opponent. Washington will see a new face at head coach as Jim Zorn takes over for Joe Gibbs. The Redskins won four games in a row to round out their 2007 regular season, so they obviously want to use that momentum to their advantage in this season/division opener. JustBet has Thursday’s line set at the New York Giants -3 1/2 points at home.
Offensively, the Redskins have the majority of their major play-makers returning for the 2008 season. Quarterback Jason Campbell put together a respectable season before heading to the injured reserve with knee problems last season. With Campbell healed, the Redskins can take advantage of their top two wide outs, Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El. The real success of the offense, however, will rely heavily on the shoulders of starting running back, Clinton Portis. Portis has caught a bad rap for his lack of durability, but he has gone over 1,200 yards rushing in the of the last 4 years. It will be interesting to see how a new offense works with this squad. Joe Gibbs instituted a run-first policy, but with some serious play-makers in Moss and Randle El, the West Coast style offense might be a better fit, in fact, it might open things up for Portis, who also has big-play capability.
The biggest off-season acquisition for the Redskins this year came in the form of former Miami Dolphin defensive end, Jason Taylor. Taylor is one of the best pass-rushers in the game and he will give a great boost to this already solid defense if he can get healthy. If there is a weakness on this side of the ball it’s that the Skins have had trouble with the deep-ball in the past. They’ll need to remedy that if they want to improve this year, but their rush defense is so good that most teams are forced into passing as their primary means to move the ball.
Eli Manning turned in a decent regular season in 2007 before having a spectacular post-season. In the preseason Manning seemed to have more confidence, which was one of the biggest knocks on him during the regular season last year. Despite some contract disputes, Plaxico Burress is back along with veteran wide receiver Amani Toomer. Jeremy Shockey is gone, and while it never hurts to have another good option on the field, the Giants won the Super Bowl without him, and his off-the-field remarks were nothing but a distraction for a team with a lot of good things going for it. Kevin Boss proved to be a solid filler at the TE spot last year and he will be back with the team for the 2008 campaign. The Giants also bring back a solid running game to the table with Brandon Jacobs starting and Derrick Ward coming in to give the big man a breather from time to time. This combo worked very well for the Giants last season and there’s no reason the same formula won’t work this time around.
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There are some concerns defensively for the Giants, and not without good reason. They lost Michael Strahan to retirement, which was expected, but the loss of their best returning pass-rusher, Osi Umenyiora for the entire season came as a major blow to this defensive attack. One of the major reasons the Giants were so good in the playoffs last year was the play of that defensive line, which has been almost completely retooled. The rest of the defense is intact for the most part, which is a good thing, but the real question will be how the defensive line deal with the loss of its two best players.
Head to head these teams match up very well. The Giants are brimming with the confidence that comes from a winning an NFL Championship, but they’ll have to prove they can avoid a Super Bowl hangover against a talented Washington team. Washington looked like a playoff team in the second half of the 2007 season. Hopefully, a change at head coach allows this team to move forward and not take a few steps back.
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2008 NFL Preview and Predictions
July 2, 2008
The 2007 NFL season doesn’t seem so far away. The Giants improbable playoff run and eventual defeat of the seemingly unbeatable New England Patriots. The Patriot’s own Tom Brady and Randy Moss and their statistically unprecedented demolishing of the record books. ‘07 gave us plenty to remember, and plenty to look forward to for the 2008 NFL Season.
Ranking NFL teams before the season starts is not a particularly difficult task. For example, would anyone argue this projected list of the top 5 teams in the NFL?:
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Giants
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. San Diego Chargers
I won’t dispute that most, if not all, of these teams can be moved up and down a few slots, but most fans and critics would agree that these five teams are, at least based on last season’s performance and this year’s projections, set to be the elite class of the NFL again in 2008.
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By the end of the season, though hard to imagine right now, I doubt all five teams are still considered to be the top five teams in the NFL. Take pre-season 2007 as an example. ESPN.com’s power rankings had the following posted before the first snap of last year’s season:
1. New England Patriots
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Chicago Bears
The Patriots and Colts are of course at the top of the list, and should be near the tops of every list for the last two years (in this case the Chargers also panned-out), but the Ravens and the Bears? Both teams probably deserved to be ranked in the top five based on their performance in 2006, but by the end of the season the Bears were down to 20th in ESPN’s power rankings, and the Ravens had fell all the way to 25th. Where were the eventual Superbowl Champions ranked? 17th in the preseason, and the Cowboys barely broke the top ten. There is a point to this, and that is that, while there are a few organizations that have established themselves at the top of the league, the NFL is, by and large, a very versatile, competitive, and complicated league. That’s just going back one year, the further you go back, the more parody that emerges.
The athletes across the board in the NFL have gotten so good that the smallest mistakes, on the field, in the coaches booth, or otherwise, can decide the outcome of a game. This means that just about any team has the tools in place to beat any other team in the league. What this gives to fans is an enjoyment that is rare in sports. Their team truly has a chance to win on any given Sunday (or the occassional Thursday or Monday). Be sure to remember that fact going into the season. Nothing is certain in the NFL until that final whistle blows. Does that mean that the Patriots are going to lose to the Dolphins in Week 3? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
The 2008 NFL season officially kicks off on Thursday, September 4th. Records will be broken, upsets will occur, and we will love every minute of it.
