MLB Preview and Free Pick – Cardinals vs Brewers 8-26-08

This two-game series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers will have serious impact on the NL Wildcard race.

 

Milwaukee is currently the front-runner in the Wildcard standings, with St. Louis trailing them by 3.5 games.  The Brewers have the tougher schedule ahead, so they really need to extend their lead if they would like a little more security.

 

The Cardinals have had a very up and down season, and while they have exceeded any expectations that anyone has for them, Tony La Russa and company are not going to be satisfied with anything less than a playoff birth.

 

St. Louis comes into tonight’s game on a good run overall and at home.  They’ve taken 7 of their last 10 overall and they’ve won 11 of their last 15 games at Busch Stadium.  Trends like this will need to continue if they are serious about making the playoffs in 2008.

 

Milwaukee has been playing well lately overall, but a few trends should have them worried.  For instance, they’ve lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.  That doesn’t bode well for their final month, where they will be facing some of the better teams in the National League.  There should also be a concern about Ben Sheets, who seems to be suffering from the same problems as the club is.  When Sheets starts for the Brewers, they are just 2-5 in his last 7 starts against teams with a winning record.  There’s a pattern starting to emerge, and it is beginning to look like Milwaukee is having problems finishing out the season against quality opponents.

 

The NL Central race has been a tight one this season.  It looks like the Chicago Cubs will end up with the pennant baring any significant collapse.  The interesting thing, however, is that we’ve got two teams in the Brewers and Cardinals that each have a very good chance to grab that NL Wildcard spot.  Making the playoffs is the hard part, just about anyone can get hot at the right time and end up as World Series Champions.  You better believe that this series match up will have the feel of the playoffs.

 

MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

B. Sheets (11-7, 3.16), T. Wellemeyer (11-4, 3.79)

 

TUESDAY’S FREE MLB PICK:  St. Louis Cardinals +105 (list Wellemeyer)

 

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Cubs at Pirates MLB Free Pick and Preview 8-25-08

The Cubs are doing everything that a pennant winner needs to do.  They are cleaning up on their most recent road trips, going 10-1 in their last 11 road games overall.  The Cubbies have also won 20 of their last 26 games, keeping pace with the Milwaukee Brewers, who have been playing very well as of late, but staying in 2nd place in the NL Central.  Monday the Cubs face the Pittsburgh Pirates who are nearing the end of yet another losing season.  Pittsburgh is just 1-4 in their last 5 home games, they’ve lost 4 in a row and they are also just 1-4 in their last 5 games against left-handed starters.  Cubs’ starter, Ted Lilly, has been one of the toughest lefties in the majors to beat this year, the Cubs always seem to rally behind him, a big reason for his 12 wins, despite an ERA over 4.00.  With Milwaukee still coming hard at the Cubs, I think they pour it on the Pirates Monday and don’t leave anything to chance.

 

CHICAGO CUBS AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES

T. Lilly (12-7, 4.25), J. Karstens (2-2, 2.25)

 

Free MLB Pick:  Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-116) (list both starters)

 

 

Padres at Giants MLB Preview and Free Pick 8-24-08

The Giants and Padres meet Sunday in San Francisco.  It’s a match up between two of the worst teams in baseball this year.  The good news?  Somebody gets to walk away with a win!

 

The Giants were expected to have a bad season, and they have, but you could make the argument that they have exceeded expectations by staying out of last in the NL West.  They have the San Diego Padres to thank for that.

 

The Padres came within one win of going to the World Series last year.  Now they are 48-81, in last place, and 20 games out of the lead in their division.  Nobody expected this big of a collapse.  They’ve had their share of injuries, but they still have a solid core of starting pitchers and position players.  It’s hard to pinpoint what all went wrong, but whatever happened, the Padres are barely a shadow of the team they were last year.

 

The Giants come into Sunday’s game on a bit of a hot streak.  They’ve won 4 home games in a row and they are 7-1 at home against teams with a winning percentage of less than .400 (this number only includes the Padres and Nationals, who are the only two NL teams with that bad of a record).

 

It’s hard to find a team that’s been colder longer than the San Diego Padres.  They have won just 17 of their last 59 games.  17!  That’s less than .300 ball they are playing in that span.  They obviously haven’t been playing well against their division either, in fact, they’ve lost 4 in a row against the NL West.

 

Two bad teams meet, but one must win.  We will take the lesser of the two evils here with the Giants, who are having a bad season by most standards, but one that’s not so bad when compared with the tremendous collapse of the San Diego Padres.

 

SAN DIEGO PADRES @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

J. Banks (3-6, 4.81), K. Correia (2-7, 5.15)

 

Sunday’s Free MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -124

 

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Rays at White Sox – MLB Preview and Free Pick 8-23-08

You won’t find the Rays as underdogs very often; even more, you will almost never find the Rays as underdogs when Scott Kazmir is starting. Kazmir is a great young talent that brings some major stability to the rotation. He puts up some great numbers, this is true, but he’s also the leader of the rotation. Having him healthy and confident makes this Rays team that much better, it is one of the most important components that has gotten them this far. The Rays have won 5 of Kazmir’s last 6 starts, including going 4-1 in games against teams with a winning record.

 

The White Sox are another team that’s been hot as of late, but those numbers are a little bit deceiving. You have to consider that, even though they’ve won 8 of their last 10 overall, they’ve only won 1 of their last 5 against teams with a winning record. Also consider that the Rays own the series between the two this year at 5-3, and the Sox have struggled all season against teams from the AL East. Chicago has lost 10 of their last 13 against the Rays’ division, plus they are just 1-4 when Saturday’s starter, Javier Vazquez, pitches against that same division.

 

What this all adds up to is an easy decision to take the underdog Tampa Bay Rays today. As far as I can see, the only reason that the Chicago White Sox are favored is because they are only a half game out of first in the AL Central, so they do have some motivation, but I think the Rays’ motivation to stave off the Boston Red Sox is just as strong.

 

TAMPA BAY RAYS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX

S. Kazmir (9-6, 3.21), J. Vazquez (10-10, 4.34)

 

Saturday’s Free Pick:  Tampa Bay Rays +128 (List Kazmir)

 

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Angels at Rays – MLB Free Pick and Preview 8-20-08

What a story the Tama Bay Rays are this year.  Everyone was so busy waiting around for them to collapse to the Red Sox or the Yankees that it doesn’t seem like anyone noticed that they are one of the best stories in recent baseball history.  Tampa finished 2007 at 66-96, thirty games below .500, this year they are leading the AL East, 4.5 games ahead of Boston and nearly thirty games over .500.  They’ve done it with great young players, in particular young pitching that has matured much faster than anyone expected.

 

The Rays have also enjoyed some of the best success in baseball at home this season (46-17), which is also one of the main reasons I like them Wednesday against the Angels.

 

The Angels have traditionally dominated Tampa, but a lot of teams dominated Tampa before this season.  In 2008 the Rays actually hold a 5-2 advantage over LA.

 

One of the angels I always like to consider is motivation.  Who has the motivation in today’s game?  The Angels are winning the AL Central by 15.5 games.  They can coast into the playoffs without breaking a sweat.  Sometimes the ability to relax and just play can help a team win, but at the end of a season, against a team like Tampa Bay, who is very motivated to win, that idea can change drastically.  As I mentioned before, the Rays are currently enjoying a 4.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox for the AL East pennant.  There’s no way for them to relax and coast into the post-season.  While it’s likely that they would be in position to grab a playoff spot through the Wild Card, it would be a perfect ending to a magical season for the Rays to win a pennant.

 

Beyond motivation, there are also strong statistical trends favoring the Rays Wednesday.  Tampa Bay is has won 6 of their last 7 overall and 42 of their last 52 games at home.  The Angels seem to be getting very relaxed as they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 overall and 6 of their last 7 road games.

 

There are plenty of reasons to get behind the Rays this season because they are a great story.  We are getting behind the Rays Wednesday night because of their strong motivation to stay atop the NL East standings, and the pure fact that they are the hotter of the two teams playing.

 

LAA ANGELS @ TAMPA BAY RAYS

J. Weaver (10-9, 4.47), M. Garza (10-7, 3.63)

 

Wednesday’s Free Pick:  Tampa Bay Rays -125

 

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Free MLB Pick and Preview – Yankees at Blue Jays 8-19-08

Tuesday we look at an AL East match up that won’t have any playoff implications, but one that should provide us with a solid winner against the sliding Yankees.

 

New York isn’t yet statistically out of the playoff race, but it would take more than one miracle for them to earn a post-season spot.  Not to mention, they just aren’t playing very good baseball.  The Yankees have now lost 4 of their last 5 against teams with a winning record.  Injuries and/or poor performance from their starting pitching would be the first place I would point to blame for the Yankees’ struggles.  One case of this would be tonight’s starter, Darrell Rasner, who the Yankees have not played well behind.  New York is just 4-9 in Rasner’s last 13 starts including a 1-6 record when he starts on the road and a 1-5 record if he is starting against a team with a winning record.  It’s not that Ranser is a bad pitcher.  I think he will eventually mature into a pretty good starter someday, but he’s very inconsistent and, as the numbers indicate, doesn’t exactly inspire production from the Yankee offense.

 

The other half of this game, the Toronto Blue Jays, don’t really have much to play for either, they are 2 games behind the Yankees in the standings, but they are at least playing well coming into tonight’s game.  Toronto has won 5 of their last 6 overall and 4 of 5 against right-handed starters.  What I really like about the Blue Jays tonight, however, is their starting pitching.  AJ Burnett isn’t exactly having a Cy Young season, but he’s managed 15 wins for an average team, and he’s stayed pretty healthy this year, something that has plagued him in the past.  Burnett has been as solid as any pitcher around when he pitches on his home turf, in fact, the Blue Jays are 7-0 in his last 7 starts in Toronto.  What’s not to like about that?

 

The bottom line here is that neither team has a lot of motivation right now, other than trying to finish a little closer to the top of the standings.  When we strip away that motivation factor I think you have to then look at starting pitching to be the most important aspect of this game, in which case I will take AJ Burnett over Darrell Rasner 10 times out of 10, at least at these two stages of their careers.

 

NEW YORK YANKEES @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS

D. Rasner (5-9, 5.18), A. Burnett (15-9, 4.67)

 

MLB Free Pick for Tuesday:  Toronto Blue Jays -125

 

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A’s at Twins – Free MLB Pick and Preview 8-18-08

The Twins are a clear choice on Monday to pick up yet another home win.  Minnesota is currently locked in a first-place tie with the Chicago White Sox for the American League Central pennant.  This should be enough motivation in itself to get them past the A’s, but there’s plenty more to like about this match up. 

 

How about the A’s motivation?  On a scale of 1 to 10 I’d put Oakland’s drive to win this game at a 1.  At 20.5 games out of first in the AL West and no shot whatsoever at earning the AL Wild-card spot, what do the A’s really have to play for?

 

The Twins are doing everything they can to finish out their season ahead of Chicago and the biggest reason they are in this position is their play in Minnesota.  They’ve won 40 of their last 56 home games and are currently on an 11-1 run at home against teams with an overall losing record.  Not bad at all.

 

I’ve already mentioned the lack of motivation for the A’s in Monday’s game, but here are some solid numbers to help back that claim up.  Oakland currently has a 17-36 record in their last 53 games overall, they have only won 6 of their last 26 games on the road, and they’ve lost 6 in a row when tonight’s starter, Justin Duchscherer, starts for them.

 

There are several more, similar trends that work against the A’s or for the Twins, but this game really boils down who wants to be there and who needs to win.  I don’t see Oakland as one of those “spoiler” teams that are out to play their tails off to try and keep someone from winning the division.  One, they aren’t really good enough to seriously spoil anything for anyone, and Two, I don’t think they really care at this point.  The Twins have once again slipped into contention without anyone really noticing.  Well, we’ve noticed and we are ready to ride the Twins on what should just another win at home for them.

 

OAKLAND A’S @ MINNESOTA TWINS

 J. Duchscherer (10-8, 2.59), N. Blackburn (9-6, 3.73)

 

Monday’s Free Pick:  Minnesota Twins -136 (list both starters)

 

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MLB Free Pick and Preview – Cardinals vs Reds 8-16-08

We are going to revisit the Cardinals again on Saturday after a nice winner on Friday over the Reds.  The same rules apply.  The Cardinals are trying to run down the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Wildcard spot, and they are well within striking distance.  The question is really who gets hot at the right time.  The problem for the Cards is that the Brewers have been on a very good run of their own and have been able to keep St. Louis in second place. 

 

Situation-wise this game heavily favors the Cardinals since the Reds are somewhat lacking in motivation for the remainder of their season.  St. Louis also holds a pretty strong statistical edge and they are coasting into Saturday’s game on some great trends.  The Redbirds have won 9 of their last 11 on the road, a stat that bodes well for them if they want to make a serious run at the Brewers for that NL Wildcard spot.  They are also backing Saturday’s starter, Joel Pineiro well all season, especially as of late.  St. Louis is 6-2 in Pineiro’s last 8 starts including his last 4 road starts.  That’s pretty good considering the Reds have lost 7 of their starter, Aaron Harang’s, last 10 starts. 

 

I touched on the fact that the Reds had pretty much mailed it in for the 2008 season, but I want to back it up a little again with statistics.  4-16 is the Reds’ record in  their last 20 games, and they’ve lost 7 in a row at home.  At home, where the Reds are traditionally very solid.  See if you can find this line at -110 or better on the Cardinals, but I’d be confident in them for up to a -125 money line.

 

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ CINCINNATI REDS 8/15/2008

J. Pineiro (5-5, 4.82), A. Harang (3-12, 5.17)

 

Saturday’s Free Pick:  St. Louis Cardinals -105 (list Harang)

 

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Cardinals vs Reds – Free Baseball Pick and Preview 8-15-08

The Cardinals have something imporant in this game that the Reds do not, and that is motivation.  The Cardinals are still very much in the race for the NL Wildcard and a chance for the playoffs.  The Reds are deep into rebuilding mode without much to prove with the rest of their 2008 campaign.  St. Louis is riding into this game on some nice trends.  They are 8-2 in their last 10 overall and 7-2 on the road against right-handed starters.  The Cards also have a starter in Brad Thompson that they are 6-0 behind when he starts against NL Central opponents.  When I said the Reds were ready to move on, I meant it.  Cincinnati has lost 19 of their last 26 overall including 10 of their last 11 against right-handed starters, plus they’ve lost 6 in a row at home.  You simply can’t underestimate the motivation factor in this game, and that’s why the Cards are an easy play on Friday.

 

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ CINCINNATI REDS 8/15/2008

M. Cain (7-9, 3.67), J. Jurrjens (11-7, 3.18)

 

Friday’s Free Pick:  St. Louis Cardinals -105 (list both starters)

 

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Brewers vs Padres Free MLB Pick and Preview 8-14-2008

The Padres host the Brewers Thursday.  Milwaukee has everything moving in the right direction, while the Pardes couldn’t be having a more disappointing season.  San Diego is just 13-39 in their last 52 games against teams with a winning record and they’ve lost 17 of their last 21 home games.  Even behind their ace, Jake Peavy, the Padres can’t get anything going.  They’ve lost 6 of Peavy’s last 8 home starts and 4 of his starts in a row against winning teams.  Milwaukee continues to make a run at the Cubs for the NL Central title.  They’ve been getting it done in every imaginable situation.  They’ve won 6 in a row against right-handed starters, they are 12-3 as favorites on the road, and they’ve won an impressive 35 of the last 51 games they have been favored in.  These numbers tell us a simple but important fact about each team.  The Brewers have been winning, and winning in bunches when they are expected to do so, and the Padres are living down to the expectations everyone has for them at this point in the year.  No surprises here, Brewers get another important win on the road Thursday night.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES 8/14/08

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