Cincinnati-Oklahoma Odds, Predictions, and Free Pick

Saturday’s game between Oklahoma and Cincinnati is one of the better match ups on the board, though you might not know it with top sportsbooks setting the spread for the game at Oklahoma -21.  Both teams dominated in their season opener against weaker teams, of course, but confidence will be riding high for the Sooners as well as the Bearcats.

 

Cincinnati’s starting QB, Dustin Grutza got off to a blazing start in week one, scoring 4 touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing) and racking up 296 yards passing, good enough for Big East Player of the Week honors.  Grutza and the rest of the Bearcat offense will have their hands full this week against a very good Oklahoma defense, but if the QB can stay consistent and the offensive line can give him time to throw, they can put up a fight in Oklahoma Saturday.  Don’t expect 550+ yards of total offense from this squad again this week, but with the talent they put on the field you shouldn’t expect them to be totally absent either.

 

The Bearcat defense also impressed against Eastern Kentucky in week one.  They only allowed one touchdown in a 40-7 rout of the Colonels.  Playing from behind all game allowed Eastern Kentucky to rack up over 100 yards through the air (still not a very impressive feat), but the Cincy rush defense allowed just 48 yards on the ground, a solid number against any level of competition.

 

The Oklahoma Sooners were predictably dominant in the season opener against Chattanooga last week.  OU dominated the first half of the game, going up 50-0 by halftime, before mercifully easing up in the second half, eventually winning 57-2.  The running and passing games were both hitting on all cylinders against an out-matched defense which allowed Oklahoma to rack up 487 yards by the final whistle.

 

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On the defensive side of the ball, the Sooners were even more impressive than Cincinnati was against Eastern Kentucky.  This unit allowed a total of 16 rushing yards and 20 passing yards, allowing a total of only 36 yards of total offense.  The defensive line is one of the best in the nation and will certainly be causing fits in the backfield for the Cincinnati offense all game long.

 

The 21 point spread for this game is a little bit surprising considering that this is a big jump in competition for the Sooners, at least at first glance.  But, looking up and down the field at these teams you start to realize just how much better of a team that Oklahoma is.  The Sooners are one of the elite teams in college football.  Do not be surprised to see them in the BCS Championship this season.  On both sides of the ball they are head-and-shoulders above the Bearcats.  Three touchdowns might seem like a lot, but don’t think for a minute that Bob Stoops’s crew is going to let up against a more nationally-known opponent.

 

Prediction:  Oklahoma 44, Cincinnati 16

 

Free Pick:  Bet on the Oklahoma Sooners -21

 

 

Colorado-Colorado State Odds and Prediction

Sunday in-state rivals collide with the Colorado State Rams hosting the Colorado Buffaloes.  The Buffs own the all-time series record by a 58-19 record, including four of the last five meetings, but in recent years these games have been closer and closer.  CSU won a disappointing 3 games last year, while Colorado mustered six wins and a trip to the Independence Bowl where they would eventually lose to Alabama 24-30.  Colorado head coach, Dan Hawkins, is optimistic about the season and he has good reason to be with the success he enjoyed last year.  Colorado State should be happy with any improvement they are able to make.  The master lines-makers over at ThePig.com have the point spread for this bitter rivalry set at Colorado -11.

 

Hawkins managed just two wins in his first year as Colorado’s head coach in 2006, but improved to six wins last year and a bowl bid.  The big question for the Buffaloes will be if they can continue to improve.  That could be difficult for Colorado, who will be starting a lot of young players on offense.  There is a solid core of offensive starters returning with 6, but at key skill positions like wide receiver and running back, Colorado is admittedly inexperienced.  If there’s one thing that could be learned from the 2007 season from the Buffaloes offense it is that Hawkin’s offensive game plan can be effective if executed correctly.  Last season one of  the keys to COlorado’s success was avoiding turning the ball over, which will again be a major factor in how they end up in 2008.  This team is probably a year or two away from making any real noise in the Big 12.  They have a brutal conference schedule to start their season, so their opening two, non-conference games are going to be crucial to this team’s confidence.

 

Defensively, Colorado needs to make vast improvements.  Last season saw a Buffaloes team that gave up more than 29 points per game and nearly 390 years of total offense per game, both numbers higher than what their offense was able to put out.  On paper, 2008 does not look like it will be any improvement on 2007′s numbers with some of their best, veteran players gone for various reasons.  Their secondary has some depth and talent, so it should be a source of stregth for the D.  Overall 8 of the 11 starters are back from last year.  They are still a young team, but hopefully they can take some of their early experience and turn the defense into a strength for this team rather than it’s biggest weekness.

 

Colorado State brings back 7 offensive starters for the 2008 season.  They will be trying to improve on what was an average offensive season, at best, in 2007.  The Rams managed 25 points per game on 380 yard of total offense, which would be considered pretty good in most conferences, but in the offense-heavy Mountain West Conference, those offensive numbers were not enough to keep this team comeptitive.

 

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A big source of weakness for the Rams last season was the defense.  This is a squad that gave up over 414 yards of total offense and 30 points per game last season.  It’s quite obvious that if these numbers don’t improve dramatically, Colorado State is not going to be competitive yet again this year.  Only 5 starters from last year’s defense return, which doesn’t have to be a bad thing, especially after what last year’s team was able to accomplish, but 6 new starters will need to gel with the rest of the team quickly for 2008 to be any better than 2007.

 

Make no mistake, neither of these teams will be mistaken for a BCS contender.  Honestly, neither will probably be any threat in their respective conferences.  Colorado is the better team on paper here, but not by a huge margin.  Rivalry games seem to bring out the best in players.  We are recommending the Colorado State Rams +11 to defend their home turf and win or keep this game very close.

 

Prediction:  Colorado State 31, Colorado 28

 

 

Clemson-Alabama Prediction, Odds, and Free Pick

One of the most anticipated games in the opening week of College Football, the Clemson Tigers host the Alabama Crimson Tide in an early statement game for both squads.  Clemson has a reputation for failing to meet expectations, a label that Tommy Bowden and his Tigers surely want to shake.  Alabama has faced some up and down seasons in recent years.  The Tide and their faithful are ready to bring Bama back to their glory-days as one of the most feared teams in football.  They’ve started to put some of the pieces together, but I don’t think they are ready to make an drastic improvements just yet.

 

The Clemson offense will be one to watch this year, they posted an impressive 403 yards per game of total offense last year and they have all of the major pieces back in place to have another impressive statistical season.  Starting QB and ACC preseason player of the year, Cullen Harper is back for his senior year and looking to improve upon a 2007 season in which he threw for nearly 3,000 yeards and 27 TDs.  The Tigers have very talented receivers and two running backs that could both be starters for almost any team in the nation.  It will be fun to watch how Bowden utilizes all of his tools throughout this game and the season overall.

 

Seven starters return to a defense that, while overshadowed by a phenomenal offense, was rock-solid last year. The only real weakness on the defense could be the D-line, which has been hit with a few key injuries.  The secondary, however, will compete to be one of the best in the entire nation with four excellent returning starters.  Taking Clemson -4.5 is looking good already!

 

Alabama never really found a groove on offense last season, one of the big reasons why they managed just a 7-6 record.  There aren’t a lot of stars on this Alabama offense.  Wide receiver Julio Jones has been touted as a future impact player, but he’s still a year or two away from reaching that potential.  Senior QB, John Parker Wilson is serviceable, but is very inconsistent.  He did throw for over 2,800 yards last year, but those numbers were inflated by the number of attempts he had to throw to reach that mark, shown by his unimpressive 55 percent completion rate in 2007.

 

The Tide’s defense looks to improve on last season’s performance, but may find it difficult with injuries to some of their better players.  They do return 6 players on this side of the ball, which indicates that they could see some slight improvement over last year’s numbers, but don’t expect them to be significantly better this season.

 

There just isn’t a match up in this game that works in Alabama’s favor.  Clemson has a great secondary, so the Tide will have trouble throwing the ball, but Clemson’s offense is so much better than Alabama’s defense that Alabama is going to be forced to throw the ball more than they might want to.  It’s a vicious circle and it’s exactly what Clemson will be counting on all season long in their quest for a BCS birth.

 

Prediction:  Clemson 47, Alabama 24

 

Game Odds:
Clemson -4.5
Alabama +4.5

 

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Utah-Michigan Odds and Pick

The Rich Rodriguez era begins in Michigan on Saturday, but his Wolverines don’t have a cupcake lined up for the first game of the season.  The Utah Utes will be visiting Ann Arbor and are looking to improve on their solid finish to the 2007 season.  Expectations for both teams are high in this non-conference opener.

 

Utah returns one of the best QBs in Mountain West Conference in Brian Johnson.  For the Utes to be successful, they are going to need Johnson to progress as a passer and take advantage of some surprisingly talented wide receivers.  Something to keep in mind about this offense however, is that they aren’t used to the same caliber of competition week-in and week-out playing in the MWC as a team like Michigan, who faces a much difficult schedule from year to year.

 

Again, you’ll have to take conference strength into consideration, but the Utah defense’s numbers from a year ago are pretty impressive.  They ended up ranked 5th in the entire nation in points allowed with 16.85 per game.  The major strength for this team a year ago was their pass defense.  They have their best starters from the secondary returning for the ’08 campaign so the defensive backfield should again be a group the team can look to step up and make big plays when they need them.

 

A new head coach and a new offense in Michigan will bring somewhat of a change to the Big 10 this year.  Rodriguez’s spread option offense is difficult to defend when you have playmakers at key positions, but the Wolverines have a lot of unknowns at skill spots and learning a new, complex system is never easy for young players.  The entire offense is what you might all a work-in-progress.  There’s certainly potential, but it may take several games for them to make the necessary adjustments to be successful with this new scheme.

 

Michigan continues to have a strong tradition of good defense.  They had the 8th best pass defense in the nation as far as yards allowed per game, something that was somewhat overlooked in the success they had later in the 2007 season.  The Wolverines return 7 of their starters on the the defensive side of the ball, so this should be a very strong unit in 2008 as well.

 

Utah is a program that has flown under the radar as a result of being in a weaker conference, but that doesn’t mean they can’t challege a team like Michagan, even in the Big House.  Michigan should be excited about starting a new era, but they can’t get away from the smash mouth defense that has helped make them successful in the past.  JustBet.com has the line set in favor of the home team, Michigan -3, but don’t shy away from a very good Utah team at +3, who could pull off the upset against a rebuilding Wolverine squad.

 

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Tennessee-UCLA Spread and Free Pick

One of the best early match ups in college football comes on Monday night, September 1st as the UCLA Bruins host the 18th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers. A key game for both schools, Tennessee will be out to prove that they deserve their preseason rank, while UCLA wants badly to put a disappointing 6-6 season behind them so they can become the power in the PAC 10 that everyone thought they would be last season.

 

Tennessee has a new starting QB for 2008. There will be a lot of eyes on junior Johnathan Crompton, who takes over for a very successful Erik Ainge, last year’s senior starter. The Vols offense has a ton of weapons, both through the air, and on the ground. Starting running back, Arian Foster went over 1,100 yeards last season and, with all 5 offensive lineman returning, is in position to take that number even higher. There aren’t many questions about the running game, but Tennessee’s success will rely on more than just the fresh legs of Foster. Crompton has some very good receivers, but he’s going to need to prove to be consistent and, most importantly, that he can be trusted to keep the ball with the offense. The kid has a great arm, but that doesn’t always translate into great completion percentage, and can sometimes lead to more frequent interceptions.

  

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The Vols defense is nothing to get excited about, but not many defenses that play against the talent in the SEC are. Finishing 70th in total yards allowed simply isn’t going to get the job done this year, but Tennessee is hoping that the 7 starters that they return on defense can help improve that number drastically in 2008. The defensive line is the stregth on this side of the ball, but the linebacking crew and the secondary two areas where the Vols need to see dramatic improvement.

 

UCLA missed a big chance last year. They started the season ranked number 14 in the country, and started off the season well, but a muddled offense and defense that blew assignments lead to an eventual 6-6 finish. Will it be redemption for the Bruins or another disappointment? The answer to that question relies heavily on the consistency and ball control of the offensive unit. UCLA returns just 4 offensive starters, and you never know how a group of guys are going to come together, but it looks like consistency could once against be a problem for this team.

 

Defensively, the Bruins thrived in the PAC 10, finishing the year ranked 36th in total yards allowed. Unfortunately, only 5 starters from that team return to the field in 2008, so UCLA will have to bank on starters without a lot of real game experience. Their could be some growing pains for the defense, but they have enough core guys back to keep them competitive against most teams.

 

There are some major concerns on the defensive side of the ball for UCLA. The Bruins simply don’t match up well against the big, athletic wide receivers of the Volunteers. Look for Tennessee move the ball easily through the air, get up early, and finish the Bruins off with a heavy dose of their star running back.

 

Prediction: Tennessee 33, UCLA 10

 

Game Odds from JustBet.com:
Tennessee -7 (-110)
UCLA +7 (-110)

 

 

Wake Forest-Baylor College Football Preview 8-28-08

After a strong finish to the 2007 season, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons open up the 2008 season ranked #23 in the nation. Their opener Thursday against the Baylor Bears will be a good litmus test for a team that appears to be on the verge of becoming a serious threat in the ACC.

 

Baylor started their 2007 campaign slowly with losses to Boston College and Nebraska before rattling off 6 wins in a row, finishing out their season by winning 9 of their last 11 games including a victory over the Connecticut Huskies in the Meineke Bowl.

 

Defensively, the Deacons return 9 starters to a team that ranked 14th in the nation in rushing yards allowed, but 67th in passing yards allowed. The team’s secondary obviously needs to make some improvements if they hope to remain in the top 25 rankings for long.

 
 
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The offense will be lead by running back Josh Adams, last season’s ACC rookie of the year, and quarterback Riley Skinner, who lead the nation with a 72.4 completion percentage and who was 2006′s ACC rookie of the year.

 

Wake’s offensive strategy relies more on controlling the ball and the clock more than putting points on the board, so you can see how they finished with 9-4 record last year despite being ranked 94th in total offense at the end of the season.

 

If 2007 was any indication of what 2008 will be like for Baylor, it’s going to be another long season for the Bears’ faithful. Baylor is picked to finish dead-last in the Big 12 again, and who can blame the experts for that after the Bears’ 3-9 performance last year.

 

Baylor gets a new head coach for the 2008 season in Art Briles. Briles has more than a little work to do to get this program headed in the right direction. He will try to keep the Bears out of the cellar in the Big 12 South, a position that Baylor has held in 11 of the 12 seasons that the Big 12 South has existed.

 

The Baylor defense ranked 111th overall last season and it is hard to imagine them making much of an improvement in 2008 with just 6 returning starters on that side of the ball.

 

Offensively, the Bears fared a little better than their defensive counterparts, but they were still ranked 86th in total offense and 114th in points scored per game. They can hope for a little improvement from last season with 9 starters returning, but it remains to be seen if they will mesh as an offensive unit, or if it will be more of the same from this Baylor offense.

 

These two squads haven’t met since 1961, so any prior records or trends are irrelevant. Wake Forest is a team whose stock is on the rise in the ACC. We will see if a new head coach can start Baylor in that same direction in the Big 12.

 

Game Time:  Thursday, August 28th  8:00 PM EST

 

GAME ODDS: 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13
Baylor Bears +13

 

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